Rising Frequency of Natural Catastrophes Coincides with Earth’s Rising Temperature
As the earth’s temperature continues to rise, an overall increase in natural catastrophes has coincided, such as the more frequent occurrence of intense rainfall and a greater incidence of tropical cyclones rapidly picking up in force as they develop. According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global average of the planet was “about 1.62C (35F) above pre-industrial levels in November, breaching the critical threshold of 1.5C” (34.7F). In 2024, insured losses reached $140 billion globally, more than double the 30-year average of roughly $60 billion according to reported data compiled by global insurance company Munich RE, while overall damages from natural disasters reach $320 billion — the most since 2021. Weather catastrophes accounted for 93% of overall losses, and for 97% of insured losses. The costliest natural disasters in 2024 were Hurricanes Milton and Helene, the former causing $25 billion in insured losses in Florida, and the latter resulted in $16 billion in losses. Already this year, wildfires have resulted in devastation across Los Angeles bringing the possibility that losses in 2025 could exceed last year’s total. Response to the surge in extreme weather has prompted insurers to retreat from some areas deemed too risky to cover. Some people point to the Pacific Ocean climate patterns of El Niño and La Niña as the cause of natural catastrophes since both have global impacts on weather, wildfires, and ecosystems.
El Niño, which can affect our weather significantly results in warmer waters that cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. This climate pattern brings warmer and dryer weather to areas in the northern U.S. and Canada, while causing periods of wetter than usual weather bringing increased flooding in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast. In contrast, La Niña creates stronger than usual trade winds, lowering the water temperature in the Pacific and tending to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. The La Niña climate pattern also leads to warmer than normal winters in the South and cooler than normal winters in the North and can also lead to a more severe hurricane season. However, the cool phase of La Niña is no match for global warming, the ENSO blog noting that the “global average during recent La Niña years is warmer than for El Niño years in earlier decades,” further pointing out that “the La Niña year of 2020 tied 2016 — a year that started with a major El Niño — as the all-time-record-high global surface temperature. The El Niño and La Niña climate patterns only cause a shifting back and forth of the heat energy already present in the climate system, while anthropogenic [human-caused] global warming results from extra heat that the increased greenhouse gases trap in the climate system. Since these gases are uniformly distributed in the atmosphere, they cause surface temperature to rise everywhere. Satellite and ocean observations show there is an increase in energy building up every year as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise; and although La Niña brings a surface cooling effect, the tenth of a degree Celsius or so (a couple tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) reduction in the global average surface temperature achieved by a strong La Niña is no comparison to the global warming caused by human-produced greenhouse gases.
Source: https://www.crainsnewyork.com/climate/catastrophic-weather-drives-insured-losses-highest-2017