CRFB Report: The Fiscal Impact of the Harris and Trump Campaign Plans

Currently the national debt “stands at 99 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and is projected to grow from 102 percent of GDP at the start of FY 2026 to 125 percent by the end of 2035 based on the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) current law baseline. The debt will exceed its record as a share of the economy – 106 percent set in 1946 – in just three years.” However, according to a recently published paper by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), neither major Presidential candidate running in the upcoming elections has put forward a plan to address this rising debt burden. The results of a comprehensive analysis by CRFB of the tax and spending plans of presidential candidates Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, concluded that both candidates “would likely further increase deficits and debt above levels projected under current law.” The United States’ “large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, boost interest rates and payments, weaken national security, constrain policy choices, and increase the risk of an eventual fiscal crisis.” Based on CRFB’s central estimate, the nation’s debt would increase by $3.50 trillion and $7.50 trillion from FY 2026 through 2035 under respective plans of Vice President Harris and former President Trump. But due to a wide-range of uncertainty because of different interpretations and estimates of the policies, CRFB’s low- and high-cost estimates of Vice President Harris’ plan “could have no significant fiscal impact or increase debt by $8.10 trillion through 2035,” while former President Trump’s plan “could increase debt by between $1.45 and $15.15 trillion.”

Source:    https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans