NYBC: 2022-2024 New York City Construction Outlook
New York City’s construction industry has made a “roaring recovery” following the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic according to the recently released report by the New York Building Congress (NYBC), with construction spending in 2022 projected to reach $86 billion — up $38 billion from 2021, and construction jobs on pace to reach 139,000. Spending figures within the report have been adjusted for inflation “in a side-by-side comparison with that of nominal dollars” due to the current state of economic uncertainty from rising inflation and on-going supply-chain issues driving up overall costs; and while some of the increased spending in 2022-2024 represents those cost increases, “much of it is attributed to counterbalancing depressed construction activity in 2020-2021.
Over the next 3-years, construction spending and building levels are projected to be “relentlessly bullish” despite economic headwinds and significant changes to the city’s workforce patterns — activity which often heralds an indication of a region’s overall economic prosperity. However, the NYBC points out that the forecast for an estimated $270 billion in construction spending in 2022 through 2024 should be continuously monitored since it could be dramatically dampened by cutbacks in development over the remaining months of 2022; a reduction in price increases; or the lack of a suitable replacement for the 421-a tax abatement program, while on the flip side, potential benefits from actions like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), aka Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) signed into law by President Biden in November 2021 could infuse additional spending.