NYS Comptroller Report: MTA Financial Outlook

Contrary to one year ago when the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (MTA) finances were in the best condition in years resulting in “all five years of its financial plan balanced,” a number of operating and capital budgets issues over the past year have created new uncertainty for the transit agency that now “threaten” its newfound fiscal stability in the upcoming years. According to the report released by the New York State Comptroller’s (OSC) office, the MTA forecasts a $428 million and $469 million budget gap in 2027 and 2028 respectively. Contributing to the gap is revenue generated by the subway and bus farebox no longer expected to keep pace with ridership recovery projections, and further diminished by continued fare evasion — particularly on buses. In addition, real estate-related tax revenues collected are expected to be lower, mostly from reductions in mortgage recording tax collections. The OSC’s report further points out that the new budget gaps in the out-years of the MTA’s financial plan does not factor in “recent uncertainty over capital funding of the 2020-2024 capital program” sparked by the unexpected June 2024 pause of the congestion pricing program that created a $15 billion funding shortfall in that capital program; and without the pause being lifted or replacement revenue being provided could push the impact on its operating budget to as high as $640 million by 2027. Within the MTA’s recently released 2025-2029 capital program, the risk to the operating budget due to the lack of funding has been “prudently laid out.” Much of the approved $33 billion in unidentified funding “is expected to be closed by funding made available through the State Legislature in the upcoming legislative session,” however, the Legislature may also “be faced with identifying a partial or full replacement of congestion pricing funds in the 2020-2024 capital program. In the event the funding requested by the MTA does not materialize, the OSC anticipates that “the choices MTA makes now will impact its system for years.”

Source:    https://www.osc.ny.gov/files/reports/osdc/pdf/report-17-2025.pdf