Trepp Report: 2022 CRE Sentiment Survey

Responses to a polling by Trepp of its 20,000-plus listeners, clients, and blog readers of their opinions on the near-term future of commercial real estate (CRE) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) markets have been compiled in the 2022 CRE Sentiment Survey released in August by the leading data provider for the finance, commercial real estate, and banking markets. Representing a mix of respondents from commercial real estate, banks, capital markets/structured finance, and academia, the “prevailing sentiment is that a variety of adverse conditions will impact business, but commercial real estate and the broader financial markets will avoid worst-case scenarios,” with 59.3% expecting a recession to likely happen by 2023. Key takeaways on the outlook of the CRE market indicated that by the end of 2022, 52.79% of respondents expect CRE fundamentals to somewhat worsen; 46.78% expect CRE sales activity to drop significantly; 41.21% expect CRE leasing to hold steady; and among the 5 major property types — office, retail, multifamily, lodging, and industrial, 70% expect the office sector to face the most distress for the remainder of 2022, despite 70% of survey participants reporting to be in the office at least 3 days per week.